Forge Probability Guide (How Success Works)
Short, practical strategy notes for faster progression. Built for players who love upgrade loops. Not affiliated with any publisher.
How to read the three numbers
Most upgrade systems are Success / Fail / Destroy. “Fail” means no level gain. “Destroy” means the relic breaks unless protected.
Expected value (EV) in plain English
- EV goes up when success is high and cost is low.
- EV goes down when destroy rises or cost spikes.
When protection is worth it
- Use protection when (destroy chance × relic value) > protection price.
- If the relic is replaceable, it’s often better to accept the risk and re-forge.
Decision shortcut
If you wouldn’t pay the same gold to re-buy this exact relic, don’t overpay to protect it.